One would think that if payments were to increase relative to receipts
that there would be an excess demand for foreign currency and an excess
supply of domestic currency on the international currency market and
that, as a result, the price of domestic currency in terms of foreign
currency would be bid down. Correspondingly, if receipts were to increase
relative to payments there would be upward pressure on the international
value of the domestic currency in terms of foreign currency. But the
principle that the balance of payments always balances implies
that receipts will ultimately always equal payments! How do we
reconcile this?
It is very important to distinguish between desired and actual
receipts and payments. An increase in desired payments relative
to receipts would cause the domestic currency to depreciate and
an increase in desired receipts relative to payments would cause
it to appreciate. When the exchange rate is allowed to respond
to the market forces of supply and demand, the movement in the
exchange rate in response to these discrepancies between desired
receipts and payments will cause transactors to moderate their
desires so as to bring desired receipts and payments into equality.
Actual and desired receipts and payments will then all be
the same. If this did not happen, the foreign exchange market
would not be in equilibrium.
Governments frequently interfere in the markets for foreign exchange to
prevent exchange rates from responding to the market forces of supply
and demand. They often fix the price of the domestic currency in terms
of a particular foreign currency at a fixed level or parity. Under these
circumstances, the desired receipts and payments of the aggregate of private
individuals and firms will not necessarily be equal. If the government
passes a law fixing the exchange rate and does nothing else
there will be two exchange rates---the official rate established
by the government and a black market rate which anyone who wants
to actually make a transaction will end up having to pay. The
black market exchange rate will adjust to equalize desired
receipts and payments, but the official rate will not.
If the government wants to keep the market exchange rate
equal to an official rate, it must either punish people who
transact at exchange rates other than the official rate or buy
and sell domestic currency for foreign currency on the international
market to eliminate any discrepancies between desired receipts
and payments. Since punishment is almost never effective
when there are significant discrepancies between the black
market and official exchange rates, the government has to adopt
the latter course.
Governments keep stocks of official reserves of foreign
exchange for use in maintaining the exchange rate at the official
level. When there is excess supply of the domestic currency on
the foreign exchange market the government sells foreign currency
out of its reserves in return for the domestic currency; when
there is an excess demand for the domestic currency it buys
foreign currency and supplies domestic currency, adding to its
stock of official reserves.
Here we must distinguish between autonomous and induced transactions.
Autonomous transactions are defined as transactions
that are made for reasons other than the government's desire to
fix or otherwise manipulate the exchange rate and induced transactions
a those that are made as a result of the government's exchange rate
manipulations. Autonomous transactions can include government as well
as private sector transactions---as when the government purchases
military equipment from abroad or sends athletes to the Olympic games.
Private transactions can also have an induced component---when for
example, expenditures abroad on tourism are reduced because domestic
residents are legally allowed to purchase only a limited quantity of
foreign funds to spend on their travels. For now we will assume that
changes in the stock of official foreign exchange reserves are the only
induced transactions---all other transactions are autonomous.
When there is no government intervention in the foreign
exchange market---that is, when the stock of foreign exchange
reserves is neither increasing nor decreasing through time,
autonomous receipts will equal autonomous payments and induced
transactions will be zero. This situation is called balance of
payments equilibrium. When autonomous payments exceed autonomous
receipts and the government is selling foreign exchange
out of its reserves in return for domestic currency, there is a
balance of payments deficit. When autonomous receipts exceed
autonomous payments, and official reserves are increasing through
time, there is a balance of payments surplus. The balance of
payments always balances, of course, because any discrepancy
between autonomous receipts and payments is offset by induced
transactions in foreign exchange. And, although the balance of
payments may not be in equilibrium, the foreign exchange market always
will be since induced transactions are desired transactions by the
government that offset the discrepancy between autonomous desired
receipts and payments. Total desired receipts will therefore
equal total desired payments.
All this is summarized in the following table which is designated
as Table 2 to distinguish it from Table 1 in the previous Topic
which is identical except for the definition of the items in the
capital account. Purchases of securities by domestic residents from
foreigners and sales of assets to foreigners are now defined to include
only autonomous transactions. The net change in official reserves is
an induced item which is entered as a (positive or negative) accumulation
of foreign exchange reserves (purchase of foreign assets) in the
debit column. This reserve accumulation represents an induced
net capital outflow that makes up the difference between the
(autonomous) current account surplus and the autonomous net
capital outflow.
Governments in danger of running out of foreign exchange
reserves as a consequence of persistent balance of payments
deficits often resort to foreign exchange controls. They pass
laws requiring that all foreign currency receipts from the sale
of goods and securities abroad be submitted to a government
agency which then parcels out these foreign funds to prospective
importers according to criteria based on national need without
regard to market forces. This means that many demands for
foreign exchange will remain unsatisfied. Those transactions
that the government can neither satisfy nor control will find
their way into the black market.
Importers who are favored by the criteria of need that the
government adopts will be able to obtain foreign currency at a
price in terms of domestic currency below that which would rule
on an unfettered market. They are, in effect, subsidized relative
to those importers who are not so favored and must pay black
market prices. Those exporters that the government can control
are forced to relinquish their foreign exchange earnings for less
domestic currency than could otherwise be obtained on the black
market, or on an unfettered market if one were allowed to operate,
and their earnings abroad are therefore being taxed by the
government.
While, as a result of these government efforts, the stock of official foreign
exchange reserves may not be declining, autonomous payments exceed
autonomous receipts since virtually all observed receipts and payments have
positive or negative induced components, and the balance of payments is
clearly out of equilibrium.
It is time for a test. Be sure to think up your own answers before looking
at the ones provided.
The balance of payments has a dimension that goes beyond
the mere tracking of transactions. The relationship between the
balance of payments and the exchange rate is much deeper than
can be understood in an accounting framework---with total
payments always identically matched by total receipts there
would seem to be no reason for the exchange rate to change. We
must therefore make a distinction between two types of payments
and receipts---autonomous and induced.
TABLE 2. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (billions of $)
Debits (Payments) Credits (Receipts)
Balance CURRENT ACCOUNT Goods (Merchandise) 200
140 -60
Services Excluding Capital Services
30
50 20
(tourism, shipping, insurance, etc.)
Gifts and Transfers 10
5 -5 _______________ _______________
_______________ Trade Account Balance 240
195 -45
Interest and Dividends 30
10 -20
_______________ _______________
_______________ Debt Service Balance 30
10 -20
_______________ _______________
_______________ Balance on Current Account 270
205 -65
CAPITAL ACCOUNT Purchases of Assets from Foreign Residents 20
-20
Sales of Assets to Foreign Residents
87 87
Change in Official Reserves (Net Sales)
-2 -2
_______________ _______________
_______________ Balance on Capital Account 20
85 65
_______________ _______________
_______________
BALANCE 290
290 0