RCEF 2012: Cities, Open Economies, and Public Policy

Thursday, Aug 16

  • General Description of the Conference Timeline

    The conference begins with a reception and a plenary presentation on the evening of Aug 16.  Paper presentations begin on August 17 and run through August 18.

  • 6:00 pm – 10:00 pm

    • Welcoming Reception and Registration

      Chair: Gianluigi Pelloni (Università di Bologna)

      Presentation: William Strange (Rotman)

      "Agglomeration and Real Estate"

           Consulate General of Italy in Toronto

           136 Beverley Street

           Toronto, Ontario M5T 1Y5

           https://maps.google.com/?q=loc:+136+beverley+street+toronto+on

    Friday, Aug 17

    8:00 am – 8:30 am

    • Continental Breakfast and Registration: VC Room 112 and Alumni Hall

    8:30 am – 10:00 am

    • Session 1
    • B: Bayesian Finance (Emanuel College, Room 119) • Chair: John Maheu
      1. Estimating a semiparametric asymmetric stochastic volatility model with Dirichlet process mixture, Mark Justin Jensen* and John M Maheu
      2. Multivariate Stochastic Volatility, William James McCausland*, Shirley Miller, and Denis Pelletier
      3. Fat-Tailed Wishart Autoregressive Processes for Multivariate Stochastic Volatility with Jumps, Roberto Leon-Gonzalez*
    • M: Macro 1 (Victoria College, Room 115) • Chair: Jurek Konieczny
      1. International Risk Sharing in Emerging Economies, Carlos Yepez*
      2. Aggregate Fluctuations, Consumer Credit and Bankruptcy, David Eric Fieldhouse*, Igor Livshits, and Jim MacGee
      3. Responses to the Financial Crisis, Treasury Debt, and the Impact on Short-Term Money Markets, Warren B. Hrung and Jason Scott Seligman*
    • T: Trade 1 (Victoria College, Room 206) • Chair: Peter Morrow
      1. How to Stir Up FDI Spillovers? Evidence from a Large Meta-Analysis, Tomas Havranek* and Zuzana Irsova
      2. The Role of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in a Dualistic Growth Framework: An Application of Smooth Coefficient Semi-parametric Approach, Zeb Aurangzeb and Thanasis Stengos*
      3. The Role of Manufacturing and Wholesale Aliates in Shaping the Geographic Organization of Multinational Firms: Theory and Evidence, Leo Karasik*
    • L: Labour Markets (Victoria College, Room 212) • Chair: Gianluigi Pelloni
      1. Temporary Help Agencies and Job Market Sorting, Fraser Summerfield*
      2. Experience, Education, and Internal Labor Markets: Intra-Firm Dynamics of Career and Wage under the Skill-biased Development, Masaki Nakabayashi*
      3. Household Risk and Insurance over the Life Cycle, Andres Erosa, Luisa Fuster, and Gueorgui Kambourov*
    • E: Children's Health and Education I (Victoria College, Room 215) • Chair: Phil Oreopoulos
      1. Influenza, the in-utero environment, and later developmental outcomes in children, Shelley Phipps and Courtney Ward*
      2. Childhood Obesity, Parents' Knowledge and Report Cards, Heather Royer* and Silvia Prina
      3. Fertility, child health, and the diffusion of electricity into the home, Joshua Lewis*
    • U/R: Transportation (Victoria College, Room 323) • Chair: Arvind Nathan Magesan
      1. Speed, Matthew Turner*, Gilles Duranton, and Victor Couture
      2. Suburbanization and Highway Improvements: Evidence from Spanish Cities, Miquel-Angel Garcia-Lopez*, Adelheid Holl, and Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal
      3. Paging Inspector Sands: The Costs of Public Information, Sacha Kapoor and Arvind Nathan Magesan*

    10:00 am – 10:30 am

    • Coffee Break: VC Room 112 and Alumni Hall

    10:30 am – 12:00 pm

    • Session 2
    • B: Bayesian Econometrics I (Emanuel College, Room 119) • Chair: Rodney Strachan
      1. Massively Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian Inference, Garland Durham* and John Geweke
      2. Marginal Likelihood for Markov-Switching and Change-Point Garch Models, Luc Bauwens, Arnaud Dufays*, and Jeroen Rombouts
      3. Bayesian regression with nonparametric heteroskedasticity, Andriy Norets*
    • M: Macro 2 (Victoria College, Room 115) • Chair: Angelo Melino
      1. Large Scale Asset Purchases: Impact on Commodity Prices and International Spillover Effects, Sharon Kozicki, Eric Santor*, and Lena Suchanek
      2. Stabilization Effects of the Euro Area Monetary Policy, Michael Owyang and Tatevik Sekhposyan*
      3. Central Bank Transparency: A Small Open Economy, Hyuk Jae Rhee and Nurlan Turdaliev*
    • T: Trade 2 (Victoria College, Room 206) • Chair: Jordi Mondria
      1. The Evolution of International Subsidy Rules, David R. DeRemer*
      2. WTO Accession and Firm-level Productivity in Chinese Manufacturing, Loren Brandt*, Johannes Van Biesebroeck, Luhang Wang, and Yifan Zhang
      3. Quality Uncertainty and Intermediation in International Trade, Kunal Dasgupta and Jordi Mondria*
    • P: Public Economics I (Victoria College, Room 212) • Chair: Yosh Halberstam
      1. Does Diversity Divide? Provision of Public Goods and Soviet Emigration to Israel, Alexander McQuoid*
      2. Social Security, Endogenous Retirement, and Intrahousehold Cooperation, Giovanni Gallipoli and Laura Turner*
      3. Spending Within Limits: Theory & Evidence From Municipal Fiscal Restraints, Leah Brooks* and Yosh Halberstam
    • E: Children's Health and Education II (Victoria College, Room 215) • Chair: Courtney Ward
      1. Birth Cohort and the Black-White Achievement Gap: The Role of Health Soon After Birth, Kenneth Chay, Jon Guryan, and Bhash Mazumder*
      2. Peer Effects in the Classroom: Evidence from New Peers in Ontario Schools, Margarita Pivovarova*
      3. The Time-Varying Relationship Between Mortality and Business Cycles in the U.S., Jean-Paul Lam* and Emmanuelle Piérard
    • U/R: Transportation 2 (Victoria College, Room 323) • Chair: Gilles Duranton
      1. A Scale-Free Transportation Network Explains the City-Size Distribution, Marcus Berliant and Hiroki Watanabe*
      2. Downtown Parking and Traffic Congestion: A Diagrammatic Exposition, Richard Arnott, Eren Inci*, and John Rowse
      3. Travel demand, urban density and the benefits of urban diversity, Victor Couture*

    12:00 pm – 1:00 pm

    • PLENARY SESSION (Emanuel College, Room 119) • Chair: Gilles Duranton
      1. Cities in the Developing World, Edward Glaeser*

    1:00 pm – 2:30 pm

    • Lunch: Burwash Hall

    2:30 pm – 4:00 pm

    • Session 3
    • B: Invited Bayesian Session (Emanuel College, Room 119) • Chair: Gary Koop
      1. Rare Shocks, Great Recessions, Vasco Curdia, Marco Del Negro*, and Daniel Greenwald
      2. Multivariate Versus Multinomial Probit: When are Binary Decisions Made Separately also Jointly Optimal?, Dale J. Poirier* and Deven Kapadia
    • M: Macro 3 (Victoria College, Room 115) • Chair: Eric Santor
      1. The Effect of Inflation Targeting: A Mean-Reverting Mirage?, Petra Maria Geraats*
      2. Inflation Targeting, Price-Level Targeting, the Zero Lower Bound, and Indeterminacy, Steven Ambler* and Jean-Paul Lam
      3. Does Macro-Pru Leak? Evidence from a UK Policy Experiment, Shekhar Aiyar*, Charles Calomiris, and Tomasz Wieladek
    • T: Trade 3 (Victoria College, Room 206) • Chair: Peter Morrow
      1. Imposed efficiency of the Treaty Port: Japanese industrialization and Western imperialist institutions, Masaki Nakabayashi*
      2. Quality and Scope in International Networks, Mengxiao Liu*, Nathan Nunn, and Daniel Trefler
      3. Transport costs and the trade diversion effect of natural resource discoveries, Roberto Bonfatti and Steven Poelhekke*
    • L: CIBC Human Capital Session (Victoria College, Room 212) • Chair: Dwayne Benjamin
      1. Different Paths? Human Capital Prices, Wages and Inequality in Canada and the US, Audra Bowlus and Chris Robinson*
      2. Inequality and City Size, Ronni Pavan* and Nathaniel Baum-Snow
      3. Credit and Insurance for Human Capital Investments, Lance Lochner* and Alexander Monge-Naranjo
    • P: Health and Public Policy (Victoria College, Room 215) • Chair: Courtney Ward
      1. Premium Copayments and the Trade-off between Wages and Employer-Provided Health Insurance, Darren Lubotsky* and Craig Olson
      2. Cash Versus In-kind Transfers, The Case of Bangladesh, Aganitpol Sivakul*
      3. Is There a Roemer’s Law for Physicians? Physician Numbers As a Driver of Provincial Government Health Spending, Livio Di Matteo*
    • U/R: Agglomeration (Victoria College, Room 323) • Chair: Gerald Carlino
      1. Agglomeration Forces and Cluster Shapes, William Kerr* and Scott D Kominers
      2. Agglomeration Premium and Trading Activity of Firms, Gábor Békés* and Péter Harasztosi
      3. The Agglomeration of R&D Labs, Gerald A Carlino*, Jake K Carr, Robert M Hunt, and Tony Smith

    4:00 pm – 4:15 pm

    • Coffee Break: VC Room 112 and Alumni Hall

    4:15 pm – 5:45 pm

    • Session 4
    • B: Bayesian Econometrics II (Emanuel College, Room 119) • Chair: John Maheu
      1. Improving Bayesian VAR density forecasts through autoregressive Wishart Stochastic Volatility, Paul Karapanagiotidis*
      2. The Multilevel First-Order Autoregressive Model: A Bayesian Look at Stability and Sensitivity, Joran Jongerling*
      3. Particle filter estimation of duration-type models, Miguel A. G. Belmonte*
      4. The Hessian method for models with leverage-like effects, Barnabe Djegnene* and William McCausland
    • U/R: PANEL DISCUSSION

      Transit: Evaluating, Planning, and Financing (Victoria College, Room 323)

      Chair: Enid Slack (IMFG,UofT)

      Speakers: Eric Miller (Cities Centre, UofT), Matt Turner (UofT), Leslie Woo (Metrolinx)

    7:00 pm – 11:00 pm

    • Conference Dinner

      Chair: Elletra Agliardi (Università di Bologna)

      Presentation: Charles Calomiris (Columbia)

      Rethinking the Structure of Prudential Bank Regulation

           Windsor Arms Courtyard Cafe

           18 St. Thomas St

           Toronto, Ontario M5S 2C1

           https://maps.google.com/?q=loc:+18+Saint+Thomas+street+toronto+on

    Saturday, Aug 18

    8:00 am – 8:30 am

    • Continental Breakfast and Registration: VC Room 112 and Alumni Hall

    8:30 am – 10:00 am

    • Session 5
    • B: Bayesian Multivariate Time Series (Emanuel College, Room 119) • Chair: Todd Clark
      1. Bayesian analysis of latent threshold dynamic models, Jouchi Nakajima* and Mike West
      2. Model averaging and variable selection in VAR-models, Shutong Ding* and Sune Karlsson
      3. Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs, Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark*, and Massimiliano Marcellino
    • M: Macro 4 (Victoria College, Room 115) • Chair: Jean-Paul Lam
      1. Cheap Money and Risk Taking: Opacity versus Fundamental Risk, Bernhard Eckwert*
      2. Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Oil Exporting Country: The Case of Russia, Andrey Polbin*, Ekaterina Ponomareva, and Andrey Zubarev
      3. The Disappearance of AAA Rated Firms, James Grant Partridge*
    • T: Trade 4 (Victoria College, Room 206) • Chair: Peter Morrow
      1. Capacity Constrained Exporters: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications, JaeBin Ahn and Alexander McQuoid*
      2. Cross-border Economic Activities, Human Capital and Efficiency: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis for OECD Countries, Sucharita Ghosh and Camilla Mastromarco*
      3. The Rise of the East and the Far East: German Labor Markets and Trade Integration, Wolfgang Dauth*, Sebastian Findeisen, and Jens Suedekum
    • P: Public Policy I (Victoria College, Room 212) • Chair: Chris Robinson
      1. Do RESPs Increase Household Saving?, Dwayne Benjamin* and Michael Smart
      2. Duration Dependence and Local Labor Market Conditions: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment, Kory Kroft*, Fabian Lange, and Matthew Notowodigdo
      3. Gender Ratios at the top PhD programs in Economics, Galina Hale* and Tali Regev
    • G: Globalization and Public Policy in Canadian Economic History (Victoria College, Room 215) • Chair: Tom Barbiero
      1. Feeding the Creatures: Borrowing and the Hard budget constraint- Ontario Municipalities in the 1930s, Almos Thomas Tassonyi*
      2. The Importance of Transport Costs: Evidence from the Trans-Atlantic Iron Trade, 1870-1913., Kris Inwood* and Ian Keay
      3. Production, Prices, Protection, and Productivity: Canadian Cotton Textiles in the 19th Century, Tom Barbiero and Michael Hinton*
    • U/R: Local Prices and Costs (Victoria College, Room 323) • Chair: Nicola Lacetera
      1. The Costs of Agglomeration: Land Prices in French Cities, Gilles Duranton*
      2. Store size, variety and welfare, Nicholas Li*
      3. Would You Buy a Honda Made in the U.S.? The Impact of Production Location on Manufacturing Quality, Nicola Lacetera* and Justin Sydnor

    10:00 am – 10:30 am

    • Coffee Break: VC Room 112 and Alumni Hall

    10:30 am – 12:00 pm

    • Session 6
    • B: Bayesian Empirical Macroeconomics (Emanuel College, Room 119) • Chair: Eleanora Granziera
      1. Propagation Mechanisms for Government Spending Shocks: A Bayesian Comparison, Anna Kormilitsina and Sarah Zubairy*
      2. Time Varying SVARs, parameter histories, and the changing impact of oil prices on the US economy, Francesca Rondina*
      3. Assessing the Importance of Learning in an Empirical Monetary Model for the US, Eleonora Granziera*
    • M: Macro 5 (Victoria College, Room 115) • Chair: Thanasis Stengos
      1. Short-Run Regional Forecasts: Spatial Models through Varying Cross-Sectional and Temporal Dimensions, Matías Mayor Fernández and Roberto Patuelli*
      2. DSGE Models and VARMA Representation, Alessia Paccagnini* and Raffaele Rossi
      3. The business cycle human capital accumulation nexus and its effect on labor supply volatility, Diana Alessandrini*, Stephen Kosempel, and Thanasis Stengos
    • T: Trade 5 (Victoria College, Room 206) • Chair: Ram C Acharya
      1. Roads and Trade: Evidence from the US, Gilles Duranton, Peter Morrow*, and Matthew Turner
      2. Good Firms, Worker Flows and Productivity in Local Labor Markets, Michel Serafinelli*
      3. Impact of Trade on Canada’s Employment, Skill and Wage Structure, Ram C Acharya* and Ryan Kelly
    • F: Finance I (Victoria College, Room 212) • Chair: Angelo Melino
      1. Optimal Captial Structure and Growth Options in Mergers and Acquisitions, Elettra Agliardi*, Amir Amel-Zadeh, and Nicos Koussis
      2. Bayesian estimation of probabilities of target rates using Fed Funds futures options, Mark Fisher*
      3. Sovereign Defaults and Interest Rate Spread in the Presence of Self Control Problem, Li Li*
    • L: CLSRN Session (Victoria College, Room 215) • Chair: Craig Riddell
      1. Changes in Returns to Task-Specific Skills and Gender Wage Gap, Shintaro Yamaguchi*
      2. Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) Status Amongst the Retired Population: An Analysis of the Incidence, David Gray* and Ross Finnie
      3. Empirical Characteristics of Legal and Illegal Immigrants in the U.S., Miana Plesca* and Vincenzo Caponi
    • U/R: Regional Development (Victoria College, Room 323) • Chair: Werner Antweiler
      1. The Role of Small Firms in Urban Economic Development in a Polycentric City, Steven G. Craig*, Janet E Kohlhase, and Adam W Perdue
      2. Industry Connections and the Geographic Location of Economic Activity, William Walker Hanlon*
      3. Small Businesses, Federal Loans, and Local Employment Growth, Yong Suk Lee*

    12:00 pm – 1:00 pm

    • PLENARY SESSION (Emanuel College, Room 119) • Chair: Dwayne Benjamin
      1. Behavioral Economics of Education: Some Puzzles, Progress, and Possibilities, Philip Oreopoulos*
    • Time Series Econometrics (Victoria College, Room 323) • Chair: John Maheu
      1. Specification tests for dynamic factor models, Gabriele Fiorentini* and Enrique Sentana
      2. Estimation and Inference for Impulse Response Weights From Strongly Persistent Processes, Richard Baillie* and George Kapetanios

    1:00 pm – 2:30 pm

    • Lunch: Burwash Hall

    2:30 pm – 4:00 pm

    • Session 7
    • B: Bayesian Forecasting (Emanuel College, Room 119) • Chair: Gianni Amisano
      1. Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs, Gary Koop* and Dimitris Korobilis
      2. Moving Average Stochastic Volatility Models with Application to Inflation Forecast, Joshua Chan*
      3. Forecasting with several macro models, Gianni G Amisano* and John Geweke
    • M: Macro 6 (Victoria College, Room 115) • Chair: Steve Ambler
      1. A Directed Search Model of Occupational Mobility, Hui Xiong*
      2. Population Density, Optimal Infrastructure and Economic Growth, Sumit Shrikant Deole*
      3. Team transfers as a mechanism to mitigate adverse selection in employee poaching, Brian R. L. Coulter*
    • F: Exchange Rates (Victoria College, Room 206) • Chair: Angelo Melino
      1. Currency Order Flow and Macroeconomic Information, Pasquale Della Corte, Dagfinn Rime, Lucio Sarno, and Ilias Tsiakas*
      2. The influence of Introducing the Taylor rule on the exchange rate in Iran, Elham Gholami and Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi*
      3. A Bayesian Nonparametric Investigation of the Relationship between Commodity Prices and Exchange Rates, Xin Jin*
    • G: Income Distribution (Victoria College, Room 212) • Chair: Dwayne Benjamin
      1. What Happened to the Middle Class in Urban China in the Last decade of the 20th Century and what were the determining factors? Results from Partial De nition of Class Membership, Gordon Anderson*, Grazia Pittau, and Roberto Zelli
      2. Trends in Top Income Shares in Canadian Cities, Brian Murphy and Michael Veall*
    • E: Human Capital Post-Secondary Education (Victoria College, Room 215) • Chair: Lance Lochner
      1. University Quality and the Labour Market Outcomes of Canadian Youth, Joniada Milla*
      2. Determinants of student’s university choice, Marta Odendal*
      3. Private Gains from Public University Research: The Case of Productivity Spillovers from Agricultural Experiment Stations, Shawn Kantor and Alexander Whalley*
    • U/R: Land Development and Neighbourhoods (Victoria College, Room 323) • Chair: Will Strange
      1. Credit Standards and Segregation, Amine Ouazad* and Romain Ranciere
      2. Estimating Neighborhood Choice Models: Lessons from the Moving To Opportunity Experiment, Sebastian Galiani, Alvin Murphy*, and Juan Pantano
      3. Breakdown of the market for developable land around a stochastic city with public goods, Coen Teulings and Wouter Vermeulen*
      4. Crime, House Prices, and Inequality: The Effect of UPPs in Rio, Benjamin Mandel* and Claudio Frischtak

    4:00 pm – 4:30 pm

    • Coffee Break: VC Room 112 and Alumni Hall

    4:30 pm – 6:00 pm

    • Session 8
    • B: Bayesian Econometrics III (Emanuel College, Room 119) • Chair: Yong Song
      1. Copula Based Factorization in Bayesian Multivariate Mixture Models, Martin Burda* and Artem Prokhorov
      2. Bayesian Doubly Adaptive Elastic-Net Lasso For VAR Shrinkage, Deborah Gefang*
      3. A New Multivariate Model with an Unknown Number of Change-points, John Maheu and Yong Song*
    • F: (Victoria College, Room 206) • Chair: Elettra Agliardi
      1. Bank Ownership, Lending, and Local Economic Performance During the 2008-2010 Financial Crisis, Nicholas Coleman and Leo Feler*
      2. Carbon Emissions and Stock Returns: Evidence from Germany, Andreas Marcel Oestreich* and Ilias Tsiakas
    • G: Industrial Organization (Victoria College, Room 212) • Chair: Gabriella Bucci
      1. Quantity competition vs. price competition under optimal subsidy in a mixed duopoly, Marcella Scrimitore*
      2. What determines a Nice Auction Page?, Rafael Tenorio* and Gabriella Bucci
    • P: Public Economics II (Victoria College, Room 323) • Chair: Victor Couture
      1. Tax evasion: Is this a government fight, or can anyone join?, Marcelo Arbex* and Enlinson Mattos
      2. E-Lections: Voting Behavior and the Internet, Oliver Falck, Robert Gold, and Stephan Heblich*

    * Presenter of paper.