Conferences at Department of Economics, University of Toronto, RCEF 2012: Cities, Open Economies, and Public Policy

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Currency Order Flow and Macroeconomic Information

Pasquale Della Corte, Dagfinn Rime, Lucio Sarno, Ilias Tsiakas

Last modified: 2012-08-02

Abstract


We investigate the predictive information content of order ‡ow for exchange rate returns, using a unique data set on daily end-user transactions for nine exchange rates across four customer types from 2001 to 2011. We …nd that a multi-currency trading strategy based solely on customer order ‡flow strongly outperforms the popular carry trade strategy. More importantly, the excess portfolio returns generated from conditioning on customer order ‡ow can be largely replicated using a combination of strategies based on publicly available information. This is consistent with the notion that order ‡flow aggregates disperse public information about economic fundamentals that are relevant to exchange rates.

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