Elections with Opinion Polls: Information Acquisition and Aggregation
Andrei Gomberg, Tetsuya Hoshino*
Building: HEC Montréal - Édifice Hélène-Desmarais
Room: HEC
Date: 2025-05-03 1:30 pm – 2:00 pm
Last modified: 2025-04-19
Abstract
We study elections with opinion polls, which contain information about their likely margins. Rationally inattentive voters acquire information about both the alternatives and the polls, subject to entropy-based costs. We characterize the unique symmetric equilibrium with information acquisition. Our main results are: (i) the probability of making the correct choice is independent of electorate size, voters’ prior, and the presence of partisans; (ii) elections become closer as electorate size grows. Furthermore, elections with polls can achieve a higher probability of making the correct choice than those without. We offer novel implications for regression discontinuity design in close elections.