Conferences at Department of Economics, University of Toronto, Canadian Economic Theory Conference 2014

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A Battle of Informed Traders and the Market Game Foundations for Rational Expectations Equilibrium

James Peck*

Last modified: 2014-04-05

Abstract


Potential manipulation of prices and convergence to rational expectations equilibrium is studied in a game without noise traders. Informed players with initially long and short positions (bulls and bears) seek to manipulate consumer expectations in opposite directions. In equilibrium, period 1 prices reveal the state, so manipulation is unsuccessful. Bears and uninformed consumers sell up to their short-sale limits in period 1. Bulls buy in period 1 but receive arbitrage losses. When the number of bulls and bears approaches infinity, the equilibrium converges to the REE. Without short-sale constraints there is a non-revealing equilibrium but no revealing equilibrium.

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