Abstract of "Electoral equilibrium under uncertainty about voters'
preferences: the effect of potential entry on candidates' positions"
by Martin J. Osborne
I explore the idea that a pair of electoral candidates will differentiate their positions to deter the entry of a third candidate. I argue that, in a one-dimensional spatial model in which each candidate seeks to maximize her probability of winning, this idea finds support only if the candidates are uncertain about the voters' preferences and have the possibility of moving asynchronously. In a
three-candidate model with both of these features I show that if there is enough uncertainty then there is an equilibrium in which two candidates enter simultaneously at distinct positions in the first period and either the third does not enter or enters between the first two candidates in the second period. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D72. Keywords:
Electoral competition, entry.